Explosive Poll Shows Bruce Harrell is Beatable

It’s a Race!

Conventional wisdom has been that Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell is unbeatable in the Fall. This is why he hasn’t attracted very many high-profile opponents. When combined with Harrell’s famously thin skin and tendency to hold a grudge, this is also why many progressives endorsed him while privately complaining about his poor leadership and policy performance.

But conventional wisdom is looking long in the tooth.

As I’ve noted before, the conservative backlash in Seattle politics is a thing of the past. We do not know exactly what will replace it–will there be another Trump bump for progressives? It’s hard to say - but at the very least, turnout should increase and Seattle politics should move back toward a more normal pattern compared with the big rightward shifts of 2021 and 2023. 

Those changes, as well as Harrell’s extremely lackluster performance and famously poor leadership of City Hall, suggest he should be vulnerable. And as NW Progressive Institute showed in its most recent poll–Harrell is indeed beatable.

Since early 2023, voter’s approval of Harrell has collapsed from 61% to 37%. Disapproval has nearly doubled, from 26% to 45%. His net favorability (a slightly different category) ratings are also -10%, with only a humiliating 9% viewing him very favorably, and 23% somewhat favorably. 29% view him very unfavorably, with 13% viewing him somewhat unfavorably.

In other words, even his support among his supporters is surprisingly lackluster.  

Most importantly, we now have someone to test him against. Katie Wilson is the current frontrunner for challenging Harrell - and the results of this poll really resets the invulnerability narrative.  

In a survey of likely voters, just putting Harrell and Wilson’s names next to one another - Harrell gets 28% to Wilson’s 15%, with 56% saying they are “not sure” who they would vote for.  

After a dozen years in leadership in Seattle and more than three years as Mayor, only 28% of the population reacts with “yeah - I should probably vote for this guy” at first glance.

That should set off alarm bells at the Harrell campaign.

In addition, the surveyors then exposed the remaining unsure voters to a well-written and representative paragraph of each candidates’ pitch from their websites. Wilson picked up 34% of these voters, while Harrell only picked up 15%; the rest remained unsure.

This suggests her message is much more compelling to voters.

This put their combined totals at: 

Katie Wilson - 36%
Bruce Harrell - 33%
Not Sure - 30%

With a 4.4% margin of error, this is a statistical tie. The race is a dead heat with lots of voters up for grabs. 

The survey offered some other clues, including comments from voters. One theme was a clear favorable for Wilson–hunger for change. Ten of Wilson’s supporters said simply that “she’s not Harrell” or something to that effect. Given Seattle’s long history of tossing out Mayors, and the general “throw the bums out” vibe - this isn’t surprising.

One cautionary point for Wilson - one of her supporters seemed to reject Harrell because he is not right-wing enough–meaning he’s likely to revert back to Harrell once he figures out Wilson is to his left. It is possible that irritated right wingers may think they want to vote against Harrell but when they get to a general election, they are unlikely to pick a progressive instead. Still, overall, the comment mix seems favorable for Wilson.

Voting preference by age is also interesting. The younger the voting group, the more likely to favor Wilson. Without knowing much more (e.g., education levels, etc.) - we could also infer another advantage for Wilson here. The new MAGA era is likely to turn out at a higher-than-normal number of younger voters, and this should advantage Wilson. Presumably the surveyors baked that into their sampling methods - but there seems some opportunity to surprise on the upside here.

What Can You Do?

Katie Wilson needs your help if she is going to overcome the deluge of corporate money that will be focused on smearing her. You can donate or sign over your $100 democracy voucher to Wilson’s campaign here. 

I am personally a big fan of Wilson. She’s spent years in the trenches fighting for better wages, workers’ rights, renters’ rights, and for JumpStart–Seattle’s one and only tax-the-rich program–the very program that saved our financial bacon in last year’s budget cycle. Wilson’s platform includes abundant and affordable housing, a results-based approach to homelessness, Trump-proofing our city, a comprehensive approach to public safety, and funding that relies more on the rich to pay their fair share. 

Still, I’ve found that some progressives are worried about Wilson’s long history on the movement left in the city - and wondered if the bagge of some past stances may be problem in the fall. If Wilson isn’t your cup of tea, you could throw your lot in with one of the other top two candidates to Harrell’s left.

Joe Mallahan was seen as the Chamber candidate in 2009 – and got close to winning. But he has attacked Harrell from the left for fighting social housing and mismanaging the police, and for leading a culture of misogyny and sexual harassment. On his website, he promises civilian oversight of SPD and to restore Harrell’s $100M in cuts to affordable housing. He is a little on the late side in getting into the race, and it will be interesting to see how his stances evolve under electoral pressure - but he could pick up momentum. He’s probably more moderate than Wilson, but more progressive than Harrell. You can donate to him here if you so desire.  

Ry Armstrong is also running. Ry is an actor, environmental activist and leader in Seattle’s queer and arts communities, as well as a former District 3 City Council candidate. They want to build housing, invest in safety, respect workers’ rights, and aim for affordable childcare for all. You can sign over your voucher or donate to their campaign if you like as well. 

Apologies for the recent extra paragraph/notes at the end of my previous piece. I had just arrived home from abroad, and jet lag meant I was too bleary-eyed to notice the extra notes at the end of my writing. Sorry!